Local government budget offices typically work toward one adopted forecast. This year, Florida finance teams may need two.
If voters approve HJR 1-F, also known as Amendment 3, in November, the homestead exemption changes take effect January 1, 2027. If they don’t, the current law stays in place. Because that decision comes in the middle of FY 2027-28 budget preparation, waiting until after the election isn’t much of an option. The suggested response is to model both outcomes now.
That kind of scenario planning isn’t always standard practice. In Euna’s 2026 State of Public Budgeting Report, 30 percent of local government finance teams said they don’t conduct formal scenario planning, and many that do still rely on spreadsheets to model different outcomes. HJR 1-F gives Florida municipal finance teams a concrete reason to change that.
For the full breakdown of what HJR 1-F does, see What Florida HJR 1-F Means for Local Government Finance. This article picks up where that one leaves off, with the modeling work.
Key Takeaways
- Florida HJR 1-F requires local government finance teams to prepare for two possible budget outcomes before the November 2026 vote.
- A complete budget scenario should model revenue, expenditures, reserves, and millage assumptions under both outcomes.
- Keeping multiple budget scenarios current can be difficult when managed in separate spreadsheets.
- Budget scenario planning software helps finance teams compare scenarios, update assumptions, and present consistent forecasts to leadership.
- Preparing both scenarios before the election gives local governments more time to evaluate tradeoffs and respond after the results are certified.
Why HJR 1-F Creates a Two-Scenario Planning Problem
The timing is what makes this year different. The vote for Amendment 3 happens November 3, and if the amendment passes, the changes are effective January 1, 2027. Finance teams may already be preparing FY 2027-28 revenue forecasts before the election results are known, which means the plan has to account for a decision that hasn’t been made yet.
That leaves two possible states to prepare for. In one, voters approve the amendment and the exemption changes begin phasing in. In the other, the amendment falls short of 60 percent and current rules hold. Scenario planning doesn’t require the finance office to decide which result is more likely. A credible number for both is more useful than a single guess at how the vote will go.
What HJR 1-F Changes in Each Budget Scenario
The pass scenario changes three assumptions:
- Homestead exemption: the first $150,000 of homestead value is exempt from non-school property taxes in 2027, rising to $250,000 in 2028, indexed to CPI from 2029
- Assessment cap: the growth cap on non-homestead, non-agricultural property drops from 10 percent to 5 percent, beginning January 1, 2027
- Permitted spending: remaining property tax revenue is limited to a defined set of core public needs
The fail scenario changes none of them. Current exemption levels, the existing 10 percent cap, and current spending latitude all remain in effect.
What to Include in a Local Government Budget Scenario
A complete scenario is more than a single revenue line. To compare the two futures on equal footing, each model should hold the same set of inputs, changed only where the amendment changes them:
- Taxable value assumptions: projected assessed value by property class, with the applicable exemption applied to each year’s tax roll
- Exemption assumptions: the $150,000 and $250,000 steps in the pass model, current levels in the fail model
- Millage assumptions: current or planned rates, held consistent between the two so the difference reflects the amendment
- Collections: expected collection rates against the projected tax
- Reserves: the effect of each outcome on fund balance and reserve targets
- Expenditure assumptions: the spending side, including the core-services limit under the pass model
Building the Revenue Model for Each HJR 1-F Outcome
Both models start from the same place: a baseline of current assessed value, exemption rolls, and collection rates. That baseline is the shared reference point, so the two scenarios differ only by the variables you intend.
From that baseline, the pass model applies the $150,000 exemption to the 2027 tax roll and the $250,000 to the 2028 tax roll, while lowering the non-homestead cap to 5 percent beginning in 2027. Finance teams can then trace how each step affects FY 2027-28 and future budget years. The result is a projected taxable value for each year, and from there a projected tax at current or planned millage. The fail model holds the current exemption and cap in place, and projects forward on normal assumptions.
The largest driver of the difference is homestead composition, since the share of your roll that is homestead governs how much the exemption change moves the number. Growth and collection assumptions should be stated clearly and kept identical between the two models. When a commission or an auditor asks why the two numbers differ, the answer should trace cleanly to the amendment variables and nothing else.
Modeling the Spending Side Under HJR 1-F
The revenue forecast is only part of the pass scenario. HJR 1-F also changes what property tax dollars may fund, limiting counties and municipalities to a defined set of core public needs. That set includes public safety, education and schools, infrastructure, natural resource projects, debt service on existing obligations, local government employee retirement, and the operations of county and municipal offices, except expenditures prohibited by general law.
For a budget office, this is a categorization exercise more than a revenue one. The task is to map current property-tax-funded spending against the allowed categories and identify where anything falls outside them. Those items will need another funding source if the amendment passes, so identifying them early gives leadership time to weigh options rather than react on adoption.
How Budgeting Software Keeps Both Scenarios Current Without Duplicating Work
A finance team may revise revenue assumptions half a dozen times before budget adoption. New assessment data comes in, collection rates can fluctuate, and millage assumptions change. Every revision must be reflected in both scenarios, and maintaining two independent spreadsheets becomes difficult when each change must be repeated twice.
That’s where dedicated budgeting software can be useful. Euna Budget lets finance teams build and compare multiple scenarios within the same budgeting environment, so they don’t have to maintain separate spreadsheets for each outcome. As assumptions change, teams can update both scenarios and compare their revenue and expenditure impacts side by side, then present consistent numbers to leadership throughout the budget cycle.
When a commissioner asks what happens to the reserve if the amendment passes and collections come in two points low, the finance director can answer from a current model instead of going back to rebuild a spreadsheet. The value is being able to answer in the room with current, internally consistent numbers. When a jurisdiction is ready to show residents the tradeoffs behind either outcome, the same figures can be published through OpenBook, Euna’s public budget portal, helping agencies communicate the assumptions and tradeoffs behind the adopted budget.
When to Present and Revisit Budget Scenarios
With both models built, the remaining task is communication and maintenance. Presenting the two scenarios to leadership early turns an abstract ballot question into a planning range and invites the strategic conversation before it becomes urgent.
From there, set a cadence to revisit the numbers as November 3 approaches and any new assessment or collection data comes in. Once election results are certified, one model becomes the working plan, and the other is set aside, and the FY 2027-28 budget proceeds from a foundation that was ready instead of rushed at the last minute. The point of this exercise is preparation for a fixed date, not a prediction of how the vote will go.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is budget scenario planning?
Budget scenario planning is the practice of building more than one forecast to account for an uncertain future event. For Florida local governments facing HJR 1-F, it means preparing one budget model based on the amendment passing and another based on it failing, so a defensible plan exists regardless of the November outcome.
Why do Florida finance teams need two budget models for HJR 1-F?
Because the vote happens November 3, 2026, and any approved changes take effect January 1, 2027, finance teams may already be developing the FY 2027-28 budget before the outcome is known. Waiting until after the election leaves a much shorter planning window.
What should a local government budget scenario include?
Taxable value assumptions, exemption assumptions, millage assumptions, collection rates, reserve effects, and expenditure assumptions, held consistent between the two models and changed only where the amendment changes them.
When should we start scenario planning?
Before the November vote. Building both models early gives leadership time to weigh the implications and lets the finance office revise as new data arrives, rather than starting over once results are certified.
